Societal Analysis

Population - Oct 2023

Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children delivered by women. It should be 2.1. If the TFR is less than 2, the population begins to contract and reduce. This will create huge problems when there are more old people who cannot work, economic slowdown, higher pension and health costs. This is already happening in Japan and many European countries.

From 1950 to 56 TFR was 5.9 in India. From 1957 to 65 it was 5.7. In 2002 TFR was 2.9. Today, TFR in India is 2.179, almost the perfect replacement rate.

These are the numbers given by the government to the Supreme Court at the end of 2020. In that case, why did they say, in August 2019, that we need to worry about population explosion?

In order to answer this question, let us see if there is a sharp increase in the ‘minority' population. Is it true that the minority population will become larger than the majority? Between 2001 and 2011, the Hindu TFR dropped from 4.1 to 2.6; Muslim TFR dropped from 4.8 to 2.9. From 2005-06 to 2019-20 Muslim TFR dropped from 3.7 to 2.4; just 0.3 short of the replacement level! Government data does not show any such sharp increase.

So, there is no need to worry about population explosion. Firstly, without any laws or incentives, India is already at the perfect replacement rate. Secondly, no religion or community is adding to the population, more than any other.

But who wants data? Who cares for the trends? Pōkaḍalu

What is needed is fear, apprehension, insecurity Abhadrata among communities, a feeling that ‘our' poverty is because of ‘them'. ‘Our' unemployment is because of ‘their' numbers. Such policy Vidhānaṁ consolidates ‘us' against ‘them' "Vāriki vyatirēkaṅgā ‘mēmu"

So, what is policy Vidhānaṁ and what is politics? What the government tells the Supreme Court on population is policy. What the government says on Independence Day is politics.

The politics of ‘Us' versus ‘Them'.
So that ‘Us' feel insecure Abhadrata.
So that ‘Us' fear ‘Them'.
And then ‘Us' reject ‘Them' Tiraskarin̄cu.
‘Us' don't want ‘Them'.
So ‘Us' vote for our party.
For the religion of ‘Us'.
For the language of ‘Us'.
For the identity of ‘only Us' Gurtimpu.